Right then, let’s get this over with.
Over the last few years, I’ve raised my head above the parapet and given my predictions for Hollywood’s biggest night of self-congratulation: The Academy Awards. Two years ago it was a post on here, last year a podcast, now it’s back in written form, because no-one wanted to try and make prediction while I ranted about awards on a podcast. But I still want my opinions to be known, just like every other guttersnipe with an internet connection.
As always, I’m only covering certain categories, as I’m not the man to judge sound design, or hair and make-up, I’m barely qualified to talk about the main categories, so I’m certainly not venturing to that part of Oscar-town.
Right then, grab some champagne (or box wine) and have a read.
Major Film Reviews Predicts the 92nd Academy Awards
Best Original Song
- I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away – Randy Newman (Toy Story 4)
- (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again – Elton John and Bernie Taupin (Rocketman)
- I’m Standing With You – Diane Warren (Breakthrough)
- Into the Unknown – Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez (Frozen II)
- Stand Up – Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Predicted Winner: (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again
Music is always a tricky one, but the Academy have their favourites, especially in the Original Score department (which I’m not going to cover, but I want John Williams to win FYI) and Elton John has won before, and this is the best song of the bunch, so there you go.
- The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto
- Joker – Lawrence Sher
- The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke
- 1917 – Roger Deakins
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson
Predicted Winner: 1917
No big surprises here, it’s a high-quality category, but only one (arguably two with The Lighthouse) have been renowned for their cinematography, and 1917 is the best of the bunch, taking a concept that could have been gimmicky and marrying it seamlessly with a classic war story.
Best Supporting Actor
- Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood (as Fred Rogers)
- Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (as Pope Benedict XVI)
- Al Pacino – The Irishman (as Jimmy Hoffa)
- Joe Pesci – The Irishman (as Russell Bufalino)
- Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (as Cliff Booth)
Predicted Winner: Brad Pitt
Another crowded category here; and a heavy influence of real life figures too. If this were who I wanted to win rather than who I think will win, then Pesci or Pacino would get a statuette, as it stands, I think it’s Brad Pitt’s time to pick up an acting honour.
Best Supporting Actress
- Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (as Barbera “Bobi” Jewell)
- Laura Dern – Marriage Story (as Nora Farnshaw)
- Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (as Rosie Betzler)
- Florence Pugh – Little Women (as Amy March)
- Margot Robbie – Bombshell (as Kayla Pospisil)
Predicted Winner: Margot Robbie
The first prediction I’m sticking my neck out for, the bookies have Laura Dern as a favourite for this award, but I think she was maybe the fourth best thing about Marriage Story, and there were so many more standouts.
Robbie takes this for her role as a sexually-harassed staffer at Fox, one would like to think for her sterling performance, but she’s more likely to win in order to deflect those awkward sexism accusations by giving it to a #MeToo friendly role. A shame as she is also the best performance here too.
Best Leading Actor
- Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory (as Salvador Mallo)
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (as Rick Dalton)
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story (as Charlie Barber)
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (as Arthur Fleck/Joker)
- Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (as Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio)
Predicted Winner: Joaquin Phoenix
Just like Gary Oldman two years ago, this is almost a foregone conclusion at this point. The only thing stopping this outcome is Phoenix’s outbursts as previous awards ceremonies, the Academy might not look fondly upon that and decide not to chance that at their ceremony. They shouldn’t though, and my stomach tells me they won’t.
Honourable mention should go to Adam Driver, who would have taken this in any other year.
Best Leading Actress
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet (as Harriet Tubman)
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (as Nicole Barber)
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (as Jo March)
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell (as Megyn Kelly)
- Renee Zellweger – Judy (as Judy Garland)
Predicted Winner: Renee Zellweger
No surprises here either, the academy do love a good biopic, and a good transformative performance, and Zellweger provides both here. I know this is a somewhat uncontroversial choice, and wouldn’t be my pick, but the Academy are nothing if not predictable.
Scarlett Johansson should probably feel aggrieved that she can be nominated in two acting categories, and isn’t likely to win either.
- Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
- Todd Phillips – Joker
- Sam Mendes – 1917
- Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
Predicted Winner: Sam Mendes
Crikey, that’s a bit of an all-star lineup isn’t it? It’s a bit like the Avengers of Film Directors, which I suppose would make Todd Phillips Hawkeye.
Joking aside, this is a tough one to call, but I have a feeling that 1917 will be this years Academy darling, although I wouldn’t be surprised if either Tarantino or Scorsese take the gong, Tarantino has bafflingly never won for Best Director, not even for Pulp Fiction, just in case you needed any more reason to not take these awards seriously.
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Predicted Winner: 1917
Like I said in the last category; I think 1917 will be this years Academy darling.
Every year has one, the film that wins most of the awards, whether it was the best of the year or not (anyone remember The Artist?) and this year will be no different.
To give it credit though, 1917 is at least a great film, helped by its somewhat-unique cinematography, it just so happens to also be the kind of film the Academy loves, and that’s what will ultimately win them the statue.
For those wondering, Marriage Story would be my choice, not Joker. Are your minds sufficiently blown?
Other Award Predictions That I Couldn’t Be Bothered Writing Paragraphs For:
Best Adapted Screenplay – Joker
Best Original Screenplay – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best International Film – Parasite
Best Original Score – Joker
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 4
Want a much better (and shorter) film awards? Then why not check out my Major Film Awards from the start of this year? All the excitement of the Oscars with none of the egos and endless waiting!